What the Spring Summer 2025 Weather Forecast means for Mānuka & Honey Producers in the North Island

Analysing the NIWA forecasting, this coming spring / early summer is shaping up to be largely favourable for honey production in the North Island, with warm temperatures, enough moisture, and (fingers crossed) a weak La Niña influence. That said, eastern areas may be a little dry late in the season, so your timings and site choices will be important.

Will the sun shine on the honey industry this upcoming harvest season? Photo Credit: Paul Sutherland Photography

Below is a region-by-region weather forecast information breakdown for getting the most from your mānuka or mixed flora sites.

What the Climate Models Are Saying (Oct–Dec 2025):

Temperature: 

• Expect above-average warmth over much of Aotearoa, including the North Island. That’s good news for bee activity and nectar flow.

Rainfall / soil moisture: 

• Mostly mixed, with many areas to see near-normal moisture, but north and east regions lean toward slightly drier conditions as the season progresses.

ENSO / La Niña influence: 

• A weaker La Niña is expected, though not dramatic, but enough to accentuate warm spells and shift moisture patterns modestly northward.

So in short: a climate tailwind, but with a “don’t get complacent” caveat.

Sources: NIWA seasonal outlook; CPC ENSO outlook.

Regional Weather Forecasts & What You’ll Want to Do.

Below is how each region in the North Island is lining up:

Region	Forecast Signal	Risk Zones
Northland / Auckland / Waikato / Bay of Plenty	Warm, moisture around normal to slight dry on edges	Late-season dryness in exposed sites
Gisborne / Hawke’s Bay (East NI)	Warm, with a tilt toward below normal moisture later in season	Prolonged dry windows right in bloom window
Taranaki / Whanganui / Manawatū	Warm; rainfall expected near normal	Wind or dry spells during critical phases
Wellington / Wairarapa	Warm, rainfall close to average	Wind, especially in exposed valleys

Fingers crossed for a strong Mānuka flowering season. Photo Credit: Peter Young

So the outlook’s looking pretty good for most of the North Island this season (keep crossing those fingers!)

The only real watch-out is in the north and east, where things could dry out a bit around peak Mānuka bloom time.

The advice would be to stay flexible with hive locations and keep an eye on those moisture levels - there’s every chance of a solid, rewarding harvest season ahead.

Sources:

Seasonal Climate Outlook October - December 2025 - Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA

Short-term weather impacts on honey production - PMC (USA)